Pandemic; from Fiction to Reality
Pandemic; from Fiction to Reality
A disease outbreak that once only lived in a movie, watched by a few, who knew would soon become a reality in December 2019. An emergence of a disease, whose complexity the world was unaware of, no one knew what happened, what was happening and what was going to happen, and that is when COVID happened. A pandemic that lived as a fiction in movie soon became the reality of the world, through the emergence of COVID. A situation that was pretty similar to that of the movie Contagion (2011), almost as it was a prediction or a warning of what awaits.
The emergence or origination of both the viruses COVID and MEV-1 virus are same, i.e., from animal, a bat, which then was passed on to humans. Both of the viruses are extremely contagious, with similar mode of transportation, that is through fomites; spreading through surfaces. Followed by the similar symptoms too, which included, cough, fever, fatigue etc. Though The outbreak in the movie verses COVID, was much more intense, whether it be the panic that was created by people, the rate at which people were dying, the vaccine production. "The imaginary Contagion disease kills over 20% of those infected, a magnitude beyond the estimated 2% or so death rate in the current outbreak." [i](1)
Scenes from the film Contagion.
YouTube/Screenshot by NPR
Source: https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/02/16/802704825/fact-
checking-contagion-in-wake-of-coronavirus-the-2011-movie-is-trending
Risk Assessment
With both the viruses being so similar, the risk assessment, were also similar. One of the most vital part of controlling a disease outbreak is the risk assessment which includes identifying the activities that causes the transmission of the disease, thinking about who might be at the most risk, identifying the likeliness of people contracting the virus and the measures that will help control or reduce it.[ii] (2).
Although the movie that identifies that the day people contract the virus, they are able to spread it, but “ Our experts say Paltrow wouldn't necessarily be able to transmit the virus that quickly after becoming infected. “ [iii](3). Even after you get COVID, the symptoms take a week or two to develop, and then spread. “For the novel coronavirus in China, he says, the period of time before transmission is possible is looking like five to six days.”[iv](4)
The R nought of MEV-1 virus was 4 as for COVID it was 2.2, everyone is equally likely to contract the virus, but the elderly are at a higher risk to develop severe symptoms or side effects of COVID due to their weak immune system. The measures taken for both of the viruses were quite similar too, whether it be wearing masks, washing hands, sanitisation the urgency to develop a vaccine etc. Another thing that we observed was the panic created by people, whether it be the people stealing medicines, usage of weapon, rushing to the supermarkets in the movie, or the panic created through covid, which included the panic buying of tissue rolls, through out the world.
Moving on to the vaccine development stage that was portrayed in the movie Contagion is also not entirely realistic, we can see that the doctor tested the vaccine on her self, while this may not be something that would have happened in real life, as it would lead to serious ethical and legal concerns. Even if self-experimentation is done, the results are not to be published. (5)[v]
Miscommunication
A pandemic that is caused by a Virus such as COVID prompts massive uncertainty, fear and anxiety among the population. An important factor for risk assessment is communication, and if this doesn’t happen within time a great panic may be created , which would lead the to the worsening of the situation as nothing spreads like fear. "There is an urgent need to communicate the health messages in ways that can be understood and applied in the heterogeneous linguistic and cultural settings in which indigenous peoples live" (6)[vi]. Due to lack of communication and knowledge there was a state of panic created among the people in the movie. An example would be the belief in forsythia as the vaccine, the looting of the supermarkets, and in reference to COVID, the bulk buying of tissue papers, or sanamaki[vii]
(7) as the cure to COVID. Miscommunication also reminds us of the scene in Contagion when the CDC director told his wife about the seriousness of the diseases who posted it on social media, creating panic amongst people. The blogger Alan in the movie who came up with the false cure, forsythia, also accused the CDC on national TV of conspiring with the pharma companies to profit off a vaccine. In a pandemic kind of situation, it is important to be careful of every small information and detail released to the public as in order to get infected you need to come in contact worth the virus but “to get scared, all you have to do is come into contact with a rumor, or the television, or the internet,” which “is far more dangerous than the disease.” [viii](8)
Scene from the movie Conatgion
Source: https://www.vox.com/2020/2/4/21120178/contagion-movie-coronavirus-itunes-fake-news
Miscommunication leads to misconceptions that eventually may lead to death. as we now are aware of how masks have not only become an integral part of our lives but also a means of survival, but initially WHO had announced that there was no use of wearing a mask, “On Jan. 25, an entry headlined “WHO: You do NOT need to wear a mask” was posted to the site, claiming the WHO had there was no medical reason to support the wearing of masks outside hospital" [ix](9) this miscommunication or incorrect information should not have been conveyed in the first place without any medical or scientific proof as that masks are the reason, half of us maybe alive today. "Shifting guidelines on mask use demonstrate the challenges of managing unknowns and the importance of upholding the “be right” principle" [x](10)
In the case of COVID , which people at first was believed to be a bio scientific weapon, also had a lot of rumours regarding the vaccination. just like in the movie we saw how people lost the sense of right and wrong, they looted supermarkets, ready to kill people for forsythia, as believed by many that the first thing that a pandemic kills is humanity (within people). And during Covid many people believed the vaccine to have a tracking device, or was injected to cause infertility in young girls.[xi](11)
It is therefore vital that the right amount of information should be provided to people at the right time, to prevent panic, and further spread of disease. Failure to recognize risk assessment may lead to death too, as that of Dr. Mears in the movie, who failed to recognize the risk attached, and got infected and then died. Risk assessment although has been to an extend successful and on the right track, but miscommunication is like the hole in a boat, we wouldn't even know and the whole boat would sink.
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